Ali Ahmadian

Uncertainty modeling of Renewable Energy Sources, load demand, electricity price, etc. create a high volume of data in smart grids. Accordingly, in this paper, a precise forecasting method based on a deep learning concept with Micro-clustering (MC) task is presented. The MC method is structured based on hybrid unsupervised and supervised clustering tasks by Kmeans and Gaussian Support Vector Machine, respectively. In the proposed method, the input data sequence is clustered by the MC task, and then the forecasting process is employed. By applying the MC, input data in each hour is categorized into different groups, and a distinctive forecasting unit is allocated to each one. In this way, more clusters and forecasting networks are earmarked for the hours with higher fluctuation rates. The Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (B-LSTM), which is one of the newest recurrent artificial neural networks, is proposed as the forecasting unit. The B-LSTM has bidirectional memory—feedforward and feedback loops- that helps us to investigate both previous and future hidden layers data. The optimal number of clusters in each hour is determined based on the Davies-Bouldin index. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, in this study, three forecasting tasks including the wind speed, load demand, and electricity price are studied in different periods using the Ontario province, Canada data set. The results are compared with other benchmarking methods to verify the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed method. In fact, the proposed method, which is equipped with the MC technique and B-LSTM networks, significantly promotes the forecasting results, especially in spike points.