احمد فهمی

This study aims to evaluate the resilience of Bonab City against the consequences of Lake Urmia’s desiccation, employing a futures studies approach. Using a mixed qualitative-quantitative methodology, data were collected through questionnaires (n=25), semi-structured interviews (n=10), and a scenario-building workshop (n=15), and analyzed using SPSS and MAXQDA software. Findings indicate that Bonab’s average resilience score is 2.65 out of 5, reflecting a weak condition—particularly in environmental (2.1) and governance (2.5) dimensions. In contrast, the social dimension (3.2), bolstered by strong social capital, emerges as the main strength. Four future scenarios were developed: “Dark,” “Technological,” “Community-Oriented,” and “Ideal.” The “Ideal” scenario—based on institutional collaboration and civic participation—is projected to improve the resilience index by 58% by the year 2031 (1410 in the Iranian calendar). Seven key recommendations are proposed: establishing a resilience fund, launching a dust-monitoring center, promoting climate-resilient agriculture, enhancing health tourism, formulating an integrated resilience document, creating a civic network, and supporting environmental migrants. This study demonstrates that Bonab’s future is malleable, contingent upon immediate, targeted, and participatory actions.