چکیده
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In third world countries, the failure of rural development programmes is one of
the main challenges of development. To overcome this challenge and achieve real
rural development, we need comprehensive planning with a futuristic approach.
Understanding the key factors of development is important because it guides the
main framework of development; therefore, key factors must be identified with the
participation of all stakeholders. Iran has more than 1,00,000 villages which are
different in terms of economic, social, natural, historical and cultural indicators.
Therefore, in this study, experts from 23 universities across the country were consulted
to obtain comprehensive key factors. The aim of this study is to recognise and analyse
key indices of rural development by futures studies approach using experts’ opinions
in order to recognise key factors for Iran’s rural development. The study method is
based on Delphi methods. Key factors and effective indices of Iran’s rural development
were selected using Porter five forces (social, technical, economic, environmental
and political) for macro environment. Further, cross-impact analysis of promoter
factors and analytic hierarchy process were used in order to determine main promoter
factors in terms of importance, effectiveness and lack of uncertainty. According to
the findings, five components with high effectiveness are participation, investment
and entrepreneurship, expert human resources, natural resources, and generating
income. Certainty and uncertainty of their key factors are discussed in order to plan
the required measurements of control and guidance for Iran’s rural development
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